Football Betting

Line of Scrimmage: Saints' Night, Manning's Nightmare

Football Betting Lines

02/07/2010 - Miami Gardens, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Raise your umbrella and your Hurricane glass to the New Orleans Saints, who are Super Bowl XLIV champions because they were flat-out better than the Colts in an incredible, exhilarating upset victory that capped off a dream season.

And as you pat the undeniably likable Saints on the back, weep for the equally likable Peyton Manning.

This is one that Manning will have to carry with him for the rest of his days, irrespective of whether he raises another Lombardi Trophy or he doesn't. This was not just a Super Bowl loss. This was a Super Bowl loss to THE SAINTS.

Manning can now look forward to the fact that, in every trip he makes to his native New Orleans for the rest of his life, he will get to listen to his high school buddies and his parents' neighbors and the guy at the rental car counter and the waitress at the restaurant remind him that he lost to the Saints. This will be horrendous, like losing a game of ping-pong to your loudmouth brother-in-law who will never, ever let you forget, and also refuses to play you again.

OK, for Manning, it might just be worse than that. Every accomplishment he will ever accumulate over the rest of his career will be answered by New Orleanians with one, four-word utterance.

A Hall of Fame plaque? Didn't beat the Saints.

Every meaningful NFL passing record? Didn't beat the Saints.

Another Super Bowl title? Didn't beat the Saints (presumably).

Look, Manning is a popular figure in New Orleans, and this is the way it had to be if the Saints wanted to win the first title in their 43-year history. But isn't it ironic that the bone of contention in elevating Manning (31- of-45, 333 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) into the discussion of the greatest ever is a loss to his dad's team, to the team whose uniform he used to wear in his backyard as a youth?

Meanwhile, if it hadn't been passed already, the torch of local quarterbacking hero was transferred in Miami from the native Manning to the meticulous Texan Drew Brees. Brees was surgical against the Colts, completing 32-of-39 passes for 288 yards and two touchdowns and winning MVP honors in runaway fashion.

Over the final three quarters, in which the Saints outscored the Colts, 31-7, Brees was a mere 29-of-32 for 261 yards, two touchdowns, and no turnovers. He threw one incompletion in the second-half. One. Don't go looking for another Super Bowl performance like that any time soon. Any lingering doubts about whether Brees was just a fantasy stud, a figure like Marino, Fouts or Moon who was a great numbers guy but lacked whatever it took to be a champion, blew away like the ticker-tape littering the Sun Life Stadium field.

Brees, at six-feet-tall in the right shoes, is never going to be the most physically imposing guy in the quarterback club. But with this win, which came just four years after he suffered a potentially career-threatening shoulder injury as a Charger, he has just given pause to every scout who would dismiss a quarterback prospect that lacks something called "an NFL body." Ryan Leaf had a great NFL body, by the way.

Brees' head coach, Sean Payton, was vindicated as well. Many of us scratched our heads back in the winter of 2006, when Payton took on what seemed like a near-hopeless case, one that transcended football. Why, we wondered, would one of the hottest assistants in the NFL accept a job in a destroyed American city, for a team that didn't look ready to win any time soon, for an owner that seemed ready to move his team to San Antonio or Los Angeles or somewhere else? Clearly, Payton saw something the rest of us didn't.

And here he is. A champion and a deserving one.

Then there is New Orleans, the Crescent City, which wins its first major sports championship in thrilling fashion. Much will be made of the Saints' mission to lift spirits in a region that is still working hard to recover from the effects of Hurricane Katrina.

Well, that tale, however heart-warming, is awkwardly told. I'm not quite sure what the Saints fans in Miami who could afford $1500 Super Bowl tickets have to do with the families of the Lower Ninth Ward whose lives were torn apart in August of 2005, but let's hope they can all find some common ground by celebrating the accomplishments of this football team.

Where do the Saints go from here? Hard to say. This should be a very good team again next year, though there are some free agent decisions to be made and who knows whether this season's unbelievable chemistry will hold. Given the ramifications of the broken-down labor talks, and the effect a potential elimination of the salary cap will have on small-market teams, who's to say whether the Saints will be able to compete 10 or even five years down the line.

But these questions are for another time and place. For now, it's on to Mardi Gras, which this year, even more than most, will be one of the wildest celebrations the City of New Orleans has ever seen.

PICKING A WINNER

Though Brees' play will likely serve to define Super Bowl XLIV, the enduring single moment of the game will probably be Tracy Porter's game-sealing 74-yard interception return for a touchdown in the fourth quarter. Down 24-17, Manning had driven the Colts to the Saints 31-yard line, where he had a 3rd- and-5 play. Porter stepped in front of a short pass intended for Reggie Wayne, dashing untouched to the end zone as the pro-New Orleans contingent exploded.

"It was great film study," said Porter of the play. "We knew that on third- and-short they stack, and they like the outside release for the slant. It was great film study by me, a great jump and a great play."

Including the regular season, the Saints defense scored eight touchdowns in 2010.

"It's the kind of play we've run a lot and Porter just made a great play," Manning said.

ANKLES AWAY

After two weeks of talk about the health of his right ankle, Colts defensive end Dwight Freeney did in fact suit up for Indianapolis, and had the game's only sack when he dragged down Brees in the second quarter. That said, the perennial Pro Bowler appeared to be favoring the ankle as the game wore on, and Freeney admitted that it stiffened up on him at halftime. Westwood One's Mark Malone revealed in a sideline report that Freeney's swollen ankle and calf were roughly the same size as the player was being re-taped.

"It's hard to put percentages on it," Freeney said of his health. "Obviously it wasn't 100 [percent]. It was kind of hard. It loosened a little bit in the second half.

THE GAMBLER

Once it worked, once it didn't. Payton rolled the dice with his team trailing 10-3 late in the second quarter, opting to leave his offense on the field on a 4th-and-goal play at the 1-yard line. Pierre Thomas was stood up by linebacker Gary Brackett on the play, handing the ball back to Indianapolis and snuffing out the Saints' best touchdown chance up to that point. New Orleans would, however, force a punt and cut the halftime lead to 10-6 on Hartley's second field goal of the game.

Clearly, Payton's gambling spirit wasn't diminished by the failure. The Saints stunned the Colts by attempting, and recovering, an onside kick to start the second half. Six plays after Jonathan Casillas made the recovery, Brees hit running back Pierre Thomas on a 16-yard screen pass for a touchdown to give the Saints their first lead at 13-10.

"We knew we were going to call it at some point, and we made the decision we were going to do it [at halftime]," Payton said of the onside kick. "At halftime I just told them, 'Hey, we're going to open up the second half with this. It's going to be a great play.'"

OFFICIALLY SPEAKING

Scott Green's officiating crew was not without a few hiccups in Super Bowl XLIV, though to the crew's credit, there was not a call that directly affected the outcome of the contest.

The most controversial decision came in the fourth quarter, when Green overturned a two-point conversion catch by Lance Moore that had been ruled incomplete. Moore did not complete the catch all the way to the ground, and similar plays in the end zone (such as a TD catch by the Raiders' Louis Murphy in Week 1) had been ruled incomplete all season. According to CBS' Boomer Esiason, NFL Director of Officials Mike Pereira said the call was the correct one, because as soon as the ball breaks the plane of the goal line, it's a dead play. That explanation would seem to conflict with previous NFL rulings, though again, it did not impact the final score.

The other major miss came on the Saints' first points of the game. Tackle Zach Strief ran onto the field late and did not report as eligible on Garrett Hartley's second-quarter field goal, which should have resulted in a procedure penalty that pushed the distance of the trifecta from 46 to 51 yards.

ODDS AND ENDS

-Colts coach Jim Caldwell, who was the first rookie coach to reach a Super Bowl since the Raiders' Bill Callahan in 2002, failed to become the first rookie since the 49ers' George Seifert in 1989 to win the big one.

-Saints kicker Garrett Hartley connected on field goals of 46, 44, and 47 yards, becoming the first player in Super Bowl history to hit three field goals of 40 yards or longer.

-The Saints overcame a 10-point deficit, matching the biggest comeback in NFL history. The 1989 Redskins were behind against the Broncos, 10-0, in Super Bowl XXII before winning the game, 42-10.

-At 42 years of age, Colts kicker Matt Stover became the oldest player in Super Bowl history. Stover kicked off the scoring with a 38-yard field goal in the first-quarter, and made two extra-points following Colts touchdowns. Stover also attempted a 51-yard field goal in the fourth quarter, which he missed. Stover had been 0-for-3 from 50 yards plus since 2007, with his last make from that distance coming as a member of the Ravens in 2006.

-Brees' 32 completions tied a Super Bowl record, matching Tom Brady's mark set against the Panthers in Super Bowl XXXVIII.

-With their win, the Saints join the Ravens, Jets, and Buccaneers as teams to prevail in their lone Super Bowl appearance.

-The Saints are the first No. 1 seed to win the Super Bowl since the 2003 Patriots, and the first No. 1 seed from the NFC to take home the title since the 1999 Rams. New Orleans is also the first club since that St. Louis squad to win a Super Bowl after leading the league in scoring.

-During their playoff run, the Saints defeated three quarterbacks - Manning, Brett Favre, and Kurt Warner - who had previously won Super Bowls. No other team in NFL history has accomplished that feat.

"WHO" ELSE WAS LEFT YAWNING?

I'm a pretty decent-sized fan of the The Who. I own Tommy, a couple of Pete Townshend solo albums, and am glad I can now say I saw them play in a live setting. But their halftime mini-set of four songs (including the "See Me, Feel Me" interlude from Tommy) that have been pummeled to death on classic rock radio over the past 25 years, before being run out on the ubiquitous CSI series, left much to be desired. Again, I'm very grateful that the NFL didn't try to pass off world-class hacks Bon Jovi as halftime entertainment, but now that all of the monsters of another generation (McCartney, Petty, Springsteen, and the Stones) have taken their Super Bowl turn, it might be time for the league to re-think the halftime concept.

As for the pregame, while I generally think Carrie Underwood is what is wrong with country music (though not as much as Kenny Chesney), I'm happy to report I thought her understated, classy rendition of the national anthem was very well done. Queen Latifah's "America the Beautiful," meanwhile, was as embarrassing as her and Underwood's eye-rolling Thursday afternoon press conference.

TAKING A BOW

Jerry Rice and Emmitt Smith were the big story when the Pro Football Hall of Fame class was announced on Saturday, though Redskins o-lineman Russ Grimm, Saints pass rusher Rickey Jackson, Vikings defensive tackle John Randle, and two veteran's committee selections - Broncos running back Floyd Little and Lions cornerback Dick LeBeau - were named to the 2010 class as well. Rice and Smith, the NFL's all-time leading receiver and rusher, respectively, figure to hog the spotlight at the induction ceremonies on Aug. 7 in Canton, OH.

Among those who fell short of the votes needed for induction were Vikings wide receiver Cris Carter, Broncos/Ravens tight end Shannon Sharpe, 49ers/Cowboys pass rusher Charles Haley, Bills receiver Andre Reed, Raiders receiver Tim Brown, and Seahawks defensive end Cortez Kennedy, among others. In my mind, the biggest snubs were Carter (who didn't even make the cut-down from 17 to 10, inexplicably) and Sharpe, both of whom had Hall of Fame careers but reflect an apparent bias among Hall of Fame voters against pass-catchers (remember how long it took Art Monk to get in?). Then again, any receiver who made the field in the same year as Rice would have looked puny in comparison.

SUNSHINE STATE SUPERLATIVES

Kudos to the South Florida Super Bowl committee for another job well done in hosting Super Bowl XLIV. After 10 Super Bowls, this is a group that knows what it's doing, and it shows. Three years ago, all of the media festivities took place in Miami. This year they were in Fort Lauderdale, which was a dramatic improvement in terms of location. All of the media hotels were within walking distance of the media center, which is a first for the six Super Bowls I've covered. Next year's event, at the palatial new Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, TX, should be a spectacle to say the least.


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Best Horse Betting Online

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.

College Football Betting Tips From a Pro

While the NFL is the sport wagered on the heaviest, college football betting lines has become more and more popular as people realize it’s a game that can be beat. The NCAA football season gets longer each year with the addition of numerous bowl games and with that comes more opportunities for more money in your pocket, if handled correctly.

Betting on college football is not the same as with the NFL, so make sure you separate the two. Because of the vast number of teams, the parity between college football programs is slight and thus, you are going to see some high numbers in the NCAA. Teams favored by more than 40 points are not uncommon especially early in the season when teams playing their non-conference schedules.

The best advice when trying to tackle these enormous spreads and is to just stay away. A team that is favored by 40 points is favored by that many for a reason while teams getting 40 points are bad enough that they shouldn’t be touched. Set yourself a spread limit. Getting rid of these games will cut down on the number of contests that you need to handicap while staying away from backdoor or front-door covers.

What is a backdoor and front-door cover you ask? A backdoor cover is a team that is getting beat by more than the spread, but scores late to get within that number thus covering the spread. A front-door cover is just the opposite where the favorite scores late and covers the number they are favored by.

These front-door and backdoor covers are common when second and third string players enter games in college football and it can be the worst nightmare for some bettors. These players can also be your best friend, but ask any bettor and he will give you more instances on losing in this situation than winning. It just seems to work out that way even though everything evens out in the end.

College football betting has some of the softest lines of any sport and it’s being able to find these lines that will make you a successful college football handicapper. The NFL and NBA have the tightest lines around and while those sports can be beat by looking at situations and systems, college football doesn’t quite work that way. It’s much more manual, but when done correctly, it’s much more gratifying as well.

Getting into the nuts and bolts of college football means looking at the many stats in order to beat the number. As opposed to pro football, college football is less dependent on situations and angles and more on certain statistics. Rushing offense and defense, pass efficiency offense and defense and turnover margins are huge. These are vital in the NFL, but even more so when it comes to college football.

Being able to run the ball in college football has always been a key factor in the overall success of a team. The same adage also goes for teams who have the ability to stop the run. Putting these two factors together can produce some positive results in a team’s record both straight up and against the spread. These numbers show huge differences in teams and the spread may not take those into effect, which is where the value comes into play.

Passing yardage numbers both for and against can be a misinterpreted statistic. However, pass efficiency has always been one of the best ways to look at a teams’ passing game ability both offensively and defensively. But is it really a true indication of how they perform? I wouldn’t say so since they are raw passing numbers with nothing else taken into consideration.

I use pass efficiency ratings when doing my handicapping but I adjust my numbers based on a number of factors including power ratings, strength of schedules, personnel and injuries. This gives a much better picture of a team’s ability to pass effectively and also being able to defend the pass. Tweaking pass efficiency stats instead of raw passing yards is the key.

Turnovers are the single most frustrating, and at times the most gratifying, aspect of a college football lines, mostly because they are so unpredictable. They are part of the game and most of the time nothing can be done to control them. However, turnovers are contagious and they can carry over from game to game and season to season.

It’s important to know how to forecast these unforeseen events and how to use them to your advantage. You can find ways to give yourself an edge by looking at past histories of teams and coaches and how they have fared in turnover wars in the past. Instead of turnovers hurting you at the wrong times, find ways to use them to your advantage.

As you can see, college football handicapping is very labor intensive and isn’t just based on where teams are ranked in the AP and coaches polls. Experience, coaching and match-ups are all important since unlike the NFL, college teams turn over much more often with new personnel at most positions every single year. Keeping current on this information is vital.

Betting NCAA football can be lucrative if done correctly, but more importantly, it’s just plain enjoyable because it can be beat. College football is one of the best sports to watch with some of the best rivalries taking place in all of sports. The only downfall is that a championship isn’t decided on the field but on a computer-based system that is the Bowl Championship Series. That will change someday and we will all be better off for it.

To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your NCAA college football betting needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.